Tonight’s Blizzard (11/16/2015) Could Bring Some Real Significant Snowfall to the Denver Metro Area

Good morning! I have good news for those of you that like winter weather and bad news for those of you that don’t. Denver is under a blizzard warning from tonight at 8pm through tomorrow at 2pm.

What’s a Blizzard Warning?

A blizzard consists of two criteria; *Winds have to be sustained or frequently gusting to at least 35 mph *Falling or blowing snow has to reduce visibility to less than 1/4 mile.

This means that if you can avoid traveling tonight and tomorrow morning, you absolutely should. Conditions will be horrible for travel and probably more problematic than it’s worth. If you have the ability to work from home. I highly recommend that you do.

The Forecast-

12Z NAM Predicted Snowfall

12Z NAM Predicted Snowfall

Storm Start and Duration: The storm should start around 6pm tonight as rain and will transition to snow around 8pm. The heaviest snow will fall between 8pm and 7am, but it won’t completely stop until early afternoon tomorrow.

Snow Accumulations: The last two model runs for the NAM, 4km, NAM, SREF, and GFS have changed the motion for this storm system. The most recent runs have shown that the system will stall for a short time and, therefore, will be able to sling more moisture at us. This has upped the snow totals from the most recent model runs. These snow accumulation totals will depend on a few factors including; when the rain changes to snow, and the temperature of the ground surface when that happens.

  • The southeast side of the metro area (southeast Aurora, Parker, Elizabeth, Palmer Divide region) will see accumulations of 18-24″.
  • Denver and immediate surrounding areas (Arvada, Littleton, Lakewood, Commerce City) will see snowfall accumulations between 8-16″
  • Boulder and surrounding areas (Broomfield, Erie, Louisville, Superior) will see accumulations of 6-12″
Low Pressure (Circle in Middle of Map) Forecast Position at 1pm Local Time Tuesday

Low Pressure (Circle in Middle of Map) Forecast Position at 1pm Local Time Tuesday

The bottom line-

We’ve seen how the models have shifted over the last few days and I’m a bit hesitant to put these accumulations out, but models do improve in accuracy the closer we get to a storm. The other thing that makes me trust these high numbers of snowfall is that they’re being predicted in all the models and not just in one or two. Travel should be avoided once things get going around 8pm. Make sure you have an emergency travel kit in your car if you need to leave. Air travel out of DIA will, more than likely, be cancelled until tomorrow afternoon so, if you have a flight between tonight and tomorrow afternoon, it will be a good idea to reschedule.

Also, it has come up a couple times in the other threads so, I’d like to mention it here. I do have an app and facebook page that I update once a day or more depending on how active the weather is at that time. The facebook page is called Denver Weather Prediction and the app is called My Weather Concierge and it’s has a one dollar per month subscription fee.

-Andrew

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